How to model a new Great Clips location, interpret the results, and use the data to make a confident go / no-go decision.
The New Salon Feasibility Tool takes the same financial logic Great Clips corporate uses in their Budget Model for New Salons and makes it interactive. Instead of filling out a complex Excel workbook, you enter a few key inputs — your proposed rent, the market, and any adjustments you want to make — and the tool instantly generates:
A plain-English top-line assessment of whether the location pencils out financially.
Year 1 revenue, profit, margin, break-even customers per week, first profitable month, and 5-year cumulative profit.
Month-by-month income statement including all revenue, cost of sales, and operating expense line items.
Revenue and profitability projections through Year 5 using Great Clips corporate growth assumptions.
Visual breakdown of payroll, rent, franchise fees, and overhead as a percentage of revenue.
A detailed plain-English verdict using your specific numbers, powered by Google Gemini.
Every default value in this tool — customer ramp, average invoice, floor hours, wages, and operating expenses — comes directly from the Great Clips Budget Model for New Salons workbook, which is based on actual new salon openings from 2019 through 2024 (excluding 2020). The data is market-specific where enough new openings exist to produce a statistically meaningful average. For markets with fewer openings, the tool defaults to the system-wide average.
This means when you select Washington DC (Hagerstown) and see a default customer ramp of 290 customers per week in Month 1, that is the real average for new Great Clips salons that opened in your market over the past five years.
Scroll to the bottom of the home page and click New Salon Feasibility Tool under Additional Tools. The tool opens as a panel over the page.
Give the location a name (e.g. "Fairfax Corner" or "Harrisonburg East") and select the nearest market from the dropdown. For your DC locations, select Washington DC (Hagerstown). For Harrisonburg, select the closest matching market.
This is the single most important input. The market default is the average from historical new salon openings — it almost certainly does not reflect Northern Virginia or DC-area real estate. Enter your proposed lease rate in dollars per month.
The four adjustment fields let you tune the model up or down from market averages. If you have traffic data from a landlord, a nearby comp, or SPOTR data, use it. If not, leave these at zero and use the market defaults.
Results appear instantly: verdict, 6 hero stats, 12-month budget, cost structure, and 5-year pro forma. Scroll down to see all sections.
Paste a free Google Gemini API key in the AI section and click Analyze for a plain-English verdict on the specific location. Free key at aistudio.google.com.
| Field | What it controls | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Salon Name | Label only — appears in AI analysis output | Use the proposed location name or address |
| Market | Loads market-specific customer ramp, invoice, hours, wages, and operating expenses | Select the closest geographic match. DC-area: Washington DC (Hagerstown). If your market isn't listed or data is thin, the tool uses system averages. |
| Monthly Rent | Replaces the market average rent in every month of the budget | Always override this. Market averages for DC are around $3,300/month — actual NoVA rates are often $5,000–$9,000+. Your lease rate determines whether the deal works. |
| Fiscal Year | Label only — used in the budget header | Set to the year you expect to open |
| Customer ramp adjustment (%) | Adjusts the monthly customer count curve up or down by this percentage | Use 0 to trust market averages. If the site has exceptional visibility or foot traffic, go +10 to +20. If it's a secondary location or new strip center, consider -10 to -15. |
| Avg invoice adjustment ($) | Adds or subtracts from the market average invoice amount every month | If your market commands higher pricing than the DC average ($15–$16 in Year 1), enter a positive number. If you expect heavy discounting at open, go negative. |
| Floor hours adjustment (%) | Adjusts total stylist floor hours up or down | Use 0 to trust market averages. Increase if you plan aggressive staffing; decrease if starting lean. |
| Avg wage adjustment ($/hr) | Adds or subtracts from the market average effective wage | DC-area wages run above system averages. If you know your local market rate is $2–$3/hr above the default, enter that here. This significantly affects payroll cost. |
| Stat | What it means | What to look for |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 Revenue | Total projected annual sales in the first 12 months | Typically $220K–$380K for a new salon in Year 1 depending on ramp speed |
| Year 1 Profit | Salon operating profit after all costs — before tax and debt service | Positive is good. Many new salons lose money in Year 1 due to grand opening advertising; Year 2 onward is more telling. |
| Break-Even Traffic | Customers per week needed to cover all fixed and variable costs | Below 300/week is strong. 300–380 is achievable. Above 400 is a stretch for a new location. |
| First Profitable Month | The first month where monthly profit turns positive | Months 4–6 is typical after grand opening advertising ends. Beyond Month 9 is a warning sign. |
| 5-Year Cumulative Profit | Total profit across Years 1–5 before taxes and debt service | The number that tells you whether this location creates enterprise value over time |
| Year 5 Margin | Operating profit margin in Year 5 when the salon is fully ramped | Target 25%+ (top 25% system benchmark). Below 15% means the location has structural problems. |
The 12-month budget table shows every line item from the Great Clips income statement format — the same structure you see in your ORS workbook. Revenue builds month by month as the salon ramps up. Key things to watch:
Months 1–3 carry $7,000/month in incremental advertising — this is why most new salons lose money in the first quarter. It drops to ~$197/month in Month 4.
The market average new salon ramp is front-loaded in the first 6 months. Month 1 typically starts around 290 customers/week and builds toward 330–360 by Month 12.
Payroll grows with customer volume. Watch the payroll % — if it stays above 45% deep into the year, the wage or staffing assumptions need review.
Your rent is the same every month regardless of revenue. This is why high-rent locations are high-risk — there is no relief in slow months.
The 5-year pro forma uses Year 1 as its base and applies growth assumptions from the Great Clips Budget Model. These are the same defaults Great Clips corporate uses:
| Assumption | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer count growth | +20% | +15% | +10% | +5% |
| Average invoice growth | +5% | Flat | Flat | Flat |
| Floor hours growth | +15% | +10% | +5% | Flat |
| Wage growth | +1% | +1% | +1% | +1% |
| Incremental advertising | −90% | Flat | Flat | Flat |
| Rent escalation | +3% | +3% | +3% | +3% |
| Other operating expenses | +2% | +2% | +2% | +2% |
The break-even calculation separates costs into two categories:
Franchise fees (6%) + Ad Fund (5%) + cost of products + back bar. These scale directly with revenue — every dollar you earn, 11 cents goes here automatically.
Payroll + payroll taxes + all operating expenses. These stay roughly constant regardless of how many customers walk in. Rent is the most rigid of all.
The formula: Break-even revenue = Fixed costs ÷ (1 − variable cost %). The break-even customer count converts that revenue figure into weekly customers using your average invoice.
The cushion or shortfall shown closely mirrors your actual projected profit or loss — if the tool shows a $20K shortfall at break-even, you should see approximately a $18–22K loss in your Year 1 results. This is by design and validates that the formula is working correctly.
After running the feasibility model, paste a free Google Gemini API key in the AI section and click Analyze. The AI receives your full financial summary — revenue, profit, margin, break-even, 5-year projections — and returns a 3–4 paragraph analysis covering:
A direct assessment of whether the location works financially, with specific reasoning tied to your numbers.
What could cause this location to underperform relative to the model's assumptions.
The conditions under which this location outperforms expectations.
Sign in with your Google account — no credit card required.
Then click Create API key → Create API key in new project.
It starts with AIzaSy. Paste it in the AI section of the tool and click Analyze.